Portland St.

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	170.0
Current RPI:	170
Expected SOS:	233
Current SOS:	233
Current Record:	17-13
Expected Record:	17-13
Current Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Conf Record:	10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	1-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	3-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	13-2
Current OOC Record:	7-3
Expected OOC Record:	7-3
Expected OOC RPI:	82
Expected OOC SOS:	222

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
17-13	170.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Portland St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-11	Portland (285.0)	WCC	A	75-80	W	100%
11-18	UC Riverside (300.0)	BW	A	82-94	W	100%
11-20	Utah St. (152.0)	MWC	H	83-79	W	100%
11-23	Duke (7.0)	ACC	N	81-99	L	0%
11-24	Butler (41.0)	BE	N	69-71	L	0%
11-26	Stanford (86.0)	P12	N	87-78	W	100%
12-6	Loyola Marymount (258.0)	WCC	A	85-94	W	100%
12-9	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	A	84-87	W	100%
12-13	Oregon (72.0)	P12	A	95-84	L	0%
12-21	California (216.0)	P12	A	81-106	W	100%
12-30	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	A	80-75	L	0%
1-4	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	A	81-74	L	0%
1-6	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	A	72-73	W	100%
1-11	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	H	93-74	W	100%
1-13	Montana (76.0)	BSky	H	89-92	L	0%
1-18	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	A	83-87	W	100%
1-20	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	A	84-79	L	0%
1-27	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	H	61-71	L	0%
2-1	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	H	88-97	L	0%
2-3	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	H	94-81	W	100%
2-8	Montana (76.0)	BSky	A	80-60	L	0%
2-10	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	A	77-80	W	100%
2-15	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	H	86-95	L	0%
2-17	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	H	91-77	W	100%
2-22	Southern Utah (252.0)	BSky	A	91-96	W	100%
2-24	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	A	66-72	W	100%
3-1	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	H	78-85	L	0%
3-3	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	H	97-90	W	100%
3-6	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	N	71-67	W	100%
3-8	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	N	78-72	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Portland St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Portland St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Portland St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Portland St.	BSky	26.43	26.43	59.38	59.38	4.96	4.96
Sacramento St.	BSky	5.87	5.87	11.11	11.11	-4.56	-4.56
Eastern Washington	BSky	5.84	5.84	55.17	55.17	0.60	0.60
Montana	BSky	4.27	4.27	75.86	75.86	2.21	2.21
Idaho	BSky	4.16	4.16	70.37	70.37	1.70	1.70
Weber St.	BSky	4.14	4.14	57.69	57.69	0.64	0.64
Montana St.	BSky	4.14	4.14	39.29	39.29	-0.89	-0.89
Idaho St.	BSky	4.11	4.11	46.15	46.15	-0.32	-0.32
Southern Utah	BSky	2.78	2.78	37.93	37.93	-0.67	-0.67
Northern Colorado	BSky	2.73	2.73	60.00	60.00	0.55	0.55
North Dakota	BSky	2.70	2.70	34.48	34.48	-0.84	-0.84
Northern Arizona	BSky	2.64	2.64	13.79	13.79	-1.91	-1.91
Stanford	P12	1.90	1.90	56.25	56.25	0.24	0.24
Portland	WCC	1.89	1.89	25.00	25.00	-0.95	-0.95
Santa Clara	WCC	1.86	1.86	35.71	35.71	-0.53	-0.53
Loyola Marymount	WCC	1.84	1.84	34.48	34.48	-0.57	-0.57
California	P12	1.80	1.80	26.67	26.67	-0.84	-0.84
Utah St.	MWC	1.78	1.78	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Riverside	BW	1.78	1.78	25.00	25.00	-0.89	-0.89
Oregon	P12	1.72	1.72	63.64	63.64	0.47	0.47
Butler	BE	1.67	1.67	59.38	59.38	0.31	0.31
Duke	ACC	1.67	1.67	78.12	78.12	0.94	0.94
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.45	0.45	14.29	14.29	-0.32	-0.32
San Francisco	WCC	0.36	0.36	53.12	53.12	0.02	0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.34	0.34	16.13	16.13	-0.23	-0.23
BYU	WCC	0.31	0.31	70.59	70.59	0.13	0.13
Washington	P12	0.31	0.31	62.50	62.50	0.08	0.08
Washington St.	P12	0.29	0.29	38.71	38.71	-0.07	-0.07
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.28	0.28	84.85	84.85	0.20	0.20
Boise St.	MWC	0.27	0.27	73.33	73.33	0.13	0.13
Gonzaga	WCC	0.25	0.25	88.24	88.24	0.19	0.19
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.25	0.25	70.00	70.00	0.10	0.10
Arizona St.	P12	0.24	0.24	64.52	64.52	0.07	0.07
Utah	P12	0.23	0.23	63.33	63.33	0.06	0.06
Pacific	WCC	0.22	0.22	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.22	0.22	62.07	62.07	0.05	0.05
UC Davis	BW	0.22	0.22	66.67	66.67	0.07	0.07
Seattle	WAC	0.22	0.22	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
UC Irvine	BW	0.22	0.22	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
USC	P12	0.21	0.21	67.65	67.65	0.07	0.07
Utah Valley	WAC	0.20	0.20	65.52	65.52	0.06	0.06
San Diego	WCC	0.20	0.20	56.67	56.67	0.03	0.03
Cal Poly	BW	0.20	0.20	24.14	24.14	-0.10	-0.10
San Jose St.	MWC	0.20	0.20	10.34	10.34	-0.15	-0.15
Fresno St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	63.33	63.33	0.05	0.05
UNLV	MWC	0.18	0.18	60.61	60.61	0.04	0.04
Arizona	P12	0.18	0.18	79.41	79.41	0.11	0.11
UCLA	P12	0.18	0.18	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Colorado St.	MWC	0.16	0.16	32.26	32.26	-0.06	-0.06
South Dakota	Sum	0.16	0.16	73.33	73.33	0.07	0.07
Oregon St.	P12	0.16	0.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.16	0.16	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.14	0.14	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
Nevada	MWC	0.14	0.14	79.41	79.41	0.08	0.08
San Diego St.	MWC	0.14	0.14	67.74	67.74	0.05	0.05
Georgia St.	SB	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
North Carolina	ACC	0.13	0.13	71.43	71.43	0.06	0.06
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.12	0.12	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Long Beach St.	BW	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	Sum	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.10	0.10	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
DePaul	BE	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Colorado	P12	0.10	0.10	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Hawaii	BW	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.08	0.08	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.08	0.08	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	BE	0.08	0.08	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.08	0.08	31.03	31.03	-0.03	-0.03
New Mexico	MWC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Seton Hall	BE	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
St. John's	BE	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Villanova	BE	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Furman	SC	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marquette	BE	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Northeastern	CAA	0.05	0.05	68.75	68.75	0.02	0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.05	0.05	75.00	75.00	0.03	0.03
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Xavier	BE	0.05	0.05	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Michigan	B10	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.02	0.02
Hampton	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Iowa	B10	0.03	0.03	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.03	0.03	32.00	32.00	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska	B10	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Wofford	SC	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Boston College	ACC	0.03	0.03	55.88	55.88	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Elon	CAA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Indiana	B10	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Louisville	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Maryland	B10	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.01	-0.01
New Hampshire	AE	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Princeton	Ivy	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	82.35	82.35	0.02	0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.03	0.03	57.14	57.14	0.00	0.00
Syracuse	ACC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Ball St.	MAC	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.02	0.02	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.02	0.02	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00